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16 Dec 2025BlogEvals, Theory

Response to titotal’s critique of our AI 2027 timelines model

elifland and Daniel Kokotajlo

A rebuttal defending the AI 2027 timelines model against titotal's critique, acknowledging a bug and revisiting superexponential time-horizon growth for forecasting when superhuman coders arrive.

AI TakeoffAI TimelinesAI

17 Nov 2025BlogDeception, Theory

The Memetic Cocoon Threat Model: Soft AI Takeover In An Extended Intermediate Capability Regime

KAP

Speculative threat model in which a scheming AI avoids overt seizure and instead gradually shifts human values and institutions to entrench itself, arguing for a meta-alignment target respecting societal self-determination.

AI ControlAI TakeoffAI TimelinesThreat Models (AI)AI

4 Aug 2025BlogTheory, Strategy & forecasting, Economy & society

Permanent Disempowerment is the Baseline

Vladimir_Nesov

Speculative strategic essay arguing that permanent human disempowerment without extinction is a likely baseline outcome of AGI, and discussing AI-driven pauses on superintelligence and value alignment.

AI RiskAI TimelinesAI