On Open-Weights Mythos Capabilities
Argues open-weights models will likely reach frontier cyber capabilities within 24 months, threatening finance and healthcare, and proposes societal and individual preparations such as airgapping mandates.
Research / Sources
LessWrong
AI research and discussion on LessWrong. www.lesswrong.com
AI (2,246)Interpretability (ML & AI) (225)AI Control (141)AI Governance (101)AI Evaluations (91)Chain-of-Thought Alignment (46)AI Risk (33)AI Safety (31)AI Takeoff (29)AI-Assisted Alignment (22)AI Rights / Welfare (20)AI Alignment Fieldbuilding (19)AI Timelines (19)Constitutional AI (15)AI Psychology (14)Dealmaking (AI) (14)Regulation and AI Risk (14)AI Benchmarking (13)Jailbreaking (AIs) (13)AI Alignment Intro Materials (11)Alignment Pretraining (11)Slowing Down AI (10)Aligned AI Proposals (9)Debate (AI safety technique) (9)AI Capabilities (8)AI Development Pause (8)OpenAI (8)Aligned AI Role-Model Fiction (7)Human-AI Safety (7)Threat Models (AI) (7)AI Oversight (6)AI Sentience (6)AI Safety Cases (5)AI "Agent" Scaffolds (4)AI arms race (4)AI Safety Camp (4)AI Safety Public Materials (4)Open Source AI (4)Transformative AI (4)Adversarial Examples (AI) (3)Adversarial Training (3)AI Alignment (3)AI Boxing (Containment) (3)AI Persuasion (3)AI Risk Concrete Stories (3)AI Risk Skepticism (3)AI Success Models (3)Guaranteed Safe AI (3)Sandbagging (AI) (3)AI Consciousness (2)AI Misuse (2)AI Racing (2)AI Spiralism / AI Psychosis (2)Frontier AI Companies (2)Grants & Fundraising Opportunities (2)PauseAI (2)Prosaic Alignment (2)Public Reactions to AI (2)Whole Brain Emulation (2)AI Auditing (1)AI Ethics (1)AI Lab Self-Immolation (1)AI Questions Open Threads (1)AI Robustness (1)AI Services (CAIS) (1)AI-Fizzle (1)AIXI (1)Blackmail / Extortion (1)Brainstorming (1)Power Seeking (AI) (1)
Focus All
Topic Strategy & forecasting
Date Any time
Don't normalize a permanent underclass (even a rich one)
Argues that post-AGI cosmic resources should not be allocated by pre-AGI wealth, since tradable claims would create a permanent underclass and race incentives, and proposes inalienability and staged allocation as alternatives.
AI Safety Can't Afford a Second Cause
An essay arguing that AI safety advocates should limit their non-essential political commentary to protect bipartisan credibility, drawing lessons from how climate change became polarized.
A brief list of ways AI safety efforts could be net negative
A strategy essay listing ways AI safety work could backfire, including governance side effects, capabilities externalities, safety-washing, and harms to AI moral patients, and urging less overconfidence about net impact.
The case for fine-grained tracking of compute for AI
Argues that FLOP/s and bandwidth proxies no longer track AI compute well and proposes architecture-specific compute scaling models, to improve forecasts and compute governance thresholds.