Discussion and research on AI alignment. alignmentforum.org
Forecasters update their timelines using METR's estimate of AI-driven R&D acceleration, predict a Superhuman AI Researcher around 2027, and argue this makes pausing frontier development urgent.
Updates AI Futures Project timelines using METR's estimate of AI-driven R&D acceleration, forecasting Superhuman AI Researcher arrival in 2027 and arguing for urgent pausing of frontier development.
Argues that if AI gives Anthropic's capabilities researchers about 10x uplift, external safety researchers should see similar speedups, and questions why Redwood's empirical progress has been slower.
Argues that a METR investigation indicates Anthropic's RSP "dramatic acceleration" threshold is already crossed, with AI automating AI R&D, implying much shorter AI timelines.
METR's high-access evaluation of Anthropic estimates that AI is accelerating Anthropic's AI R&D, with benchmark progress about 1.9x the prior rate since October 2025.