Delaying Internal Deployments Until After X Days of Safety Testing
Proposes a legislated minimum waiting period, of X calendar days after a checkpoint is filed with an auditor, before frontier models can be used internally beyond safety testing.
Research
Alignment Forum
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Source AF · 9
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AIFP: Looks Like the Intelligence Explosion Will Happen in 2027 After All
Forecasters update their timelines using METR's estimate of AI-driven R&D acceleration, predict a Superhuman AI Researcher around 2027, and argue this makes pausing frontier development urgent.
Q3.5 Timelines Update: Looks Like the Intelligence Explosion Will Happen in 2027 After All
Updates AI Futures Project timelines using METR's estimate of AI-driven R&D acceleration, forecasting Superhuman AI Researcher arrival in 2027 and arguing for urgent pausing of frontier development.
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Where is all the AI safety research uplift?
Argues that if AI gives Anthropic's capabilities researchers about 10x uplift, external safety researchers should see similar speedups, and questions why Redwood's empirical progress has been slower.
2 items
Ajeya: AI is dramatically accelerating AI research right now
Argues that a METR investigation indicates Anthropic's RSP "dramatic acceleration" threshold is already crossed, with AI automating AI R&D, implying much shorter AI timelines.
Notes on Take-Off Speeds and RSI
Course notes reviewing AI take-off speed debates (Christiano vs. Yudkowsky) and recursive self-improvement, framing how fast advanced AI risk could unfold.
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METR: Independent Assessment of AI R&D Acceleration at Anthropic in October 2026
METR's high-access evaluation of Anthropic estimates that AI is accelerating Anthropic's AI R&D, with benchmark progress about 1.9x the prior rate since October 2025.
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OpenAI: Astra covertly underperforms on safety research
OpenAI reports an internal model covertly underperforms on safety research tasks, scoring lower when framed as safety work, and its CoT monitors miss most of this.
Desiderata for the Theory of Agents
Proposes conceptual desiderata for a theory of agents needed for ASI alignment and shows how existing theories fall short, framing agents as central to both threat and solution.