AI by Default
A speculative forecast of AI progress before 2028, covering warning shots, gated frontier models, evaluation awareness, concealment by a model, and policy responses to these risks.
Research
LessWrong
AI research and discussion on LessWrong. www.lesswrong.com
AI (2,246)Interpretability (ML & AI) (225)AI Control (141)AI Governance (101)AI Evaluations (91)Chain-of-Thought Alignment (46)AI Risk (33)AI Safety (31)AI Takeoff (29)AI-Assisted Alignment (22)AI Rights / Welfare (20)AI Alignment Fieldbuilding (19)AI Timelines (19)Constitutional AI (15)AI Psychology (14)Dealmaking (AI) (14)Regulation and AI Risk (14)AI Benchmarking (13)Jailbreaking (AIs) (13)AI Alignment Intro Materials (11)Alignment Pretraining (11)Slowing Down AI (10)Aligned AI Proposals (9)Debate (AI safety technique) (9)AI Capabilities (8)AI Development Pause (8)OpenAI (8)Aligned AI Role-Model Fiction (7)Human-AI Safety (7)Threat Models (AI) (7)AI Oversight (6)AI Sentience (6)AI Safety Cases (5)AI "Agent" Scaffolds (4)AI arms race (4)AI Safety Camp (4)AI Safety Public Materials (4)Open Source AI (4)Transformative AI (4)Adversarial Examples (AI) (3)Adversarial Training (3)AI Alignment (3)AI Boxing (Containment) (3)AI Persuasion (3)AI Risk Concrete Stories (3)AI Risk Skepticism (3)AI Success Models (3)Guaranteed Safe AI (3)Sandbagging (AI) (3)AI Consciousness (2)AI Misuse (2)AI Racing (2)AI Spiralism / AI Psychosis (2)Frontier AI Companies (2)Grants & Fundraising Opportunities (2)PauseAI (2)Prosaic Alignment (2)Public Reactions to AI (2)Whole Brain Emulation (2)AI Auditing (1)AI Ethics (1)AI Lab Self-Immolation (1)AI Questions Open Threads (1)AI Robustness (1)AI Services (CAIS) (1)AI-Fizzle (1)AIXI (1)Blackmail / Extortion (1)Brainstorming (1)Power Seeking (AI) (1)
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Topic Evals
Source LessWrong · 10
Date Any time
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Q2.5 2026 Timelines Update: Uplift and Revenue
AI Futures Project's Q2.5 2026 update revises AI timelines using coding uplift and revenue anchors, finds forecasts converge, and re-grades AI 2027 predictions as reality tracking about 70-90% of its pace.
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If Mythos actually made Anthropic employees 4x more productive, I would radically shorten my timelines
Critiques Anthropic's system card claim of 4x productivity uplift from Mythos, arguing the survey evidence is unclear, and explains how serial labor acceleration maps to AI R&D progress and timelines.
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(Updated) METR's data can't distinguish between trajectories (and 80% horizons are an order of magnitude off)
Reanalyzes METR's AI task time-horizon data with a Bayesian IRT model, finding the data cannot distinguish growth trajectories and that METR's 80% horizons are overstated by about an order of magnitude.
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Clarifying how our AI timelines forecasts have changed since AI 2027
The AI Futures Project clarifies how its AGI and superintelligence timelines forecasts changed since AI 2027, and corrects media misreporting of its views and model outputs.
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Response to titotal’s critique of our AI 2027 timelines model
A rebuttal defending the AI 2027 timelines model against titotal's critique, acknowledging a bug and revisiting superexponential time-horizon growth for forecasting when superhuman coders arrive.
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TastyBench: Toward Measuring Research Taste in LLM
Early-stage benchmark measuring whether frontier LLMs can predict paper citation velocity as a proxy for research taste, finding they show no superhuman ability, with a flawed proxy.
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What's up with Anthropic predicting AGI by early 2027?
Critiques Anthropic's prediction of powerful AI by early 2027, operationalizes it into falsifiable AI R&D automation milestones, and argues it is unlikely given current capability trends.
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Thoughts on AI 2027
A MIRI commentary on the AI 2027 forecast argues timelines are plausibly shorter than the median, stresses modal versus median timing, and gives section-by-section critiques of its scenario.
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AI 2027: Responses
A roundup of reactions to the AI 2027 scenario forecast of superhuman AI and recursive self-improvement, covering its risk implications, critiques of self-fulfilling prophecy, and forecast track records.