AI research and discussion on LessWrong. www.lesswrong.com
Measures how fast frontier multimodal models are improving at directly controlling real robotic arms, finding a 53.9-day performance doubling time and falling costs, framed partly around malicious-use and physical-world risk.
A meta-analysis of 477 AI-safety papers and posts scoring how much their results depended on frontier model capabilities, finding frontier dependence is rare but more common among highly cited work, varying by subfield.
Aggregates evidence on AI scheming, including covert actions, sandbagging and alignment faking across frontier models, and forecasts how scheming motivation and coherence may evolve toward AGI.
Introduces Base64Bench, showing frontier LLMs can encode and decode base64 without tools or reasoning, which could let scheming agents hide exfiltrated data from weaker monitors.